This collection solutions quite a few fantasy-centric points following Week 6’s video games (often trying forward and ‘what does this imply?’). Like What do I do with Kirk Cousins? What goodness do you see in Craig Reynolds? and extra. It makes use of superior metrics, analytics, sport tape opinions, statistical traits, and myriad different components. It options a wide range of methods, a lot of that are coated on this primer article and reviewed in better element at TheFootballScientist.com.
The EPA metrics detailed under are per TruMedia. Different superior metrics outdoors of my distinctive metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, until in any other case famous. Fantasy level totals are in full PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Until in any other case famous, statistical rankings are via the tip of the Sunday night time video games.
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Quarterbacks
1. Is Kirk Cousins a sit candidate till Justin Jefferson returns?
Exterior of a subpar Week 4 sport towards Carolina, Cousins had been a robust fantasy starter in Weeks 1-5, scoring 19+ factors in all however one sport and posting 16.46 factors within the different.
That constant efficiency stage and the Vikings’ aggressive cross offense made fantasy managers have some religion in placing Cousins in beginning lineups in Week 6 though Justin Jefferson had been positioned on injured reserve as a consequence of a hamstring harm. That religion was not rewarded, as Cousins posted a season low 8.74 factors towards a mediocre Chicago secondary.
Since Jefferson shall be out of the Vikings lineup for wherever from 3-5 extra weeks, Cousins’ fantasy managers wish to know if the issues that occurred this week with out Jefferson are more likely to be resolved, or if having Jefferson out of the lineup implies that Cousins needs to be benched.
Let’s begin by figuring out what the difficulty could be. Listed here are the cross manufacturing ranges for Cousins by route depth stage and speeding for Weeks 1-5 (the weeks with Jefferson) after which Week 6 (the week with out Jefferson).
Weeks 1-5
- Vertical passing: 9.68 PPG, ranked first
- Quick passing: 11.10 PPG, ranked third
- Dashing: 0.04 PPG, ranked thirty sixth
Week 6
- Vertical: 2.28 factors, ranked 18th
- Quick: 8.96, ranked tenth
- Dashing: -0.50, thirty sixth (final)
Cousins’ brief cross manufacturing was down by solely two factors, in order that isn’t an enormous hindrance, and the speeding numbers are equally non-existent, so the difficulty could be very clearly vertical passing.
Now let’s have a look at how the vertical cross manufacturing has been distributed among the many Minnesota receivers. Listed here are the Vikings’ vertical fantasy PPR level totals and proportion of the crew PPR complete from Weeks 1-5 (the crew complete was 135 PPR factors).
The share distribution was related in normal and half-PPR scoring, so Jefferson was mainly simply over half of this membership’s vertical passing sport regardless of how one measures it.
Right here’s essentially the most attention-grabbing half. Dropping Jefferson would counsel that a variety of vertical targets may very well be distributed to the remainder of the crew, however that isn’t what occurred. Try the Vikings vertical route, goal, and receptions volumes per sport with and with out Jefferson.
With Jefferson
52.4 vertical routes, 11.4 targets, 6.2 receptions
With out Jefferson
30 routes, seven targets, three receptions
Which means the Vikings determined as soon as Jefferson was out of the lineup, they weren’t even going to attempt to function the identical aggressive downfield passing assault, however as a substitute have been going to function a way more conservative system.
That dovetails effectively with the concept Minnesota has been making an attempt very arduous to remain out of the shootout video games that they received so a lot of final yr, however have been shedding of late, and this simply provides them another reason to take action.
Add that to a schedule that over the subsequent 4 weeks consists of matchups towards San Francisco, Inexperienced Bay, and New Orleans — groups that every fee within the prime 9 in vertical fantasy factors allowed per sport since Week 3 — and it means that Cousins will not be going to return to the downfield-centric methods till Jefferson returns.
In different phrases, in case you have Cousins as your starter, it’s essential be in search of options.
Working backs
2. How did the Arizona operating again scenario play out within the first week with out James Conner?
Emari Demercado noticed his roster fee in ESPN leagues skyrocket by 54.8 % this previous week, following James Conner’s knee harm, however managers who put Demercado into lineups have been severely disillusioned when he had solely two carries for 11 yards and caught just one cross for six yards towards the Rams.
That reveals the Arizona operating again scenario didn’t pan out as anticipated… so what occurred? Let’s have a look at the Cardinals’ operating again snap numbers to search out out.
Arizona Cardinals RB snaps, Week 6
| Participant | Off snaps | Cross snaps | Rush snaps | Routes | Cross block snaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
33 |
30 |
3 |
26 |
4 |
|
|
26 |
12 |
14 |
11 |
1 |
|
|
12 |
4 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
It seems Demercado was utilized as a cross catching again, whereas Damien Williams and Keaontay Ingram (who was listed first on the Arizona operating again depth chart on the finish of the week) received the push snaps. That issue led Williams and Ingram to generate 8 and 10 carries, respectively, towards Los Angeles.
The takeaway for fantasy managers is that the Cardinals appear to view Demercado as a 3rd down again who isn’t going to see many carries or receptions. That ought to make Williams and Ingram precedence waiver targets this week, contemplating that they’re each out there in 90+ % of ESPN leagues.
3. What to do with James Prepare dinner?
Prepare dinner was a gradual level producer in Weeks 1-4, as his 14.53 PPR PPG tempo ranked fifteenth amongst operating backs, and he scored 10+ PPR factors in every of these contests. That hasn’t been the case in Weeks 5-6, as Prepare dinner dropped to solely 6.1 PPR PPG in that span, a tempo that’s forty sixth amongst operating backs.
That decline will trigger many fantasy managers to contemplate protecting Prepare dinner on the bench this week, however earlier than doing that, think about that Prepare dinner did have 14 carries for 71 yards towards the Giants. He additionally remains to be the Payments’ prime receiving again, as in Weeks 5-6, Prepare dinner ran 40 routes and had 4 of Buffalo’s 5 targets to operating backs.
Mix that with the Payments having green-rated rush protection matchups in three of the subsequent 4 weeks and it reveals that there’s nonetheless loads of upside to be garnered right here, so preserve Prepare dinner in as a flex candidate on the very least.
4. What’s the potential worth for Craig Reynolds?
Reynolds shall be excessive on the waiver consideration record for a lot of fantasy managers this week, since David Montgomery suffered a rib harm towards the Buccaneers and Jahmyr Gibbs missed his second straight sport with a hamstring harm.
If Montgomery is out and Gibbs is wholesome, it’s not just like the Lions will need Gibbs to be the lead again — as they’ve utilized him as a gadget again all season lengthy partially due to sturdiness considerations — so the function might fall to Reynolds, who’s third on the Lions operating again depth chart.
Reynolds doesn’t have many carries to his title in his five-year professional profession, however he did showcase some breakaway talent in 2022, as he posted an 8.8-yard mark in my good blocking yards per try (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive backs are when given high quality run blocking.
That may be a step above the 8.5-yard leaguewide common in GBYPA and reveals that Reynolds can transfer the chains when given the possibility. There may be draw back right here if the Lions resolve to go together with Gibbs because the lead again or add another person to the roster, however on the whole there are strong causes to make Reynolds a excessive precedence waiver decide.
Vast receivers/tight ends
5. Is it time to surrender on Tee Higgins?
It certain looks like it, as Higgins has scored zero, 28.9, 4.1, 3.9 and 4.0 PPR factors within the 5 video games he has performed on this season. He’s additionally coping with a rib harm that appears to be enjoying an element in his manufacturing decline.
Cincinnati will get a bye this week, so Higgins received’t be inflicting any start-sit conundrums in Week 7, however for fantasy managers contemplating what to do with him after that (and even considering of dropping him in shallow leagues), it’s price contemplating the upcoming matchups.
The Bengals face the 49ers in Week 8 and Buffalo in Week 9, each of that are powerful defenses, however each of Higgins’ cornerback matchups in these video games are yellow-rated and thus aren’t worthy of avoidance. He additionally has 4 green-rated matchups from Weeks 13-16, which suggests he may have loads of upside potential in the course of the fantasy soccer playoffs.
The underside line right here is that Higgins might have sufficient long-term worth to offset any short-term losses a fantasy supervisor has, so solely think about dropping him in case you are in a short-term scenario that requires a right away improve.
6. Is DeVonta Smith going to interrupt out of this droop any time quickly?
Smith wasn’t fairly dwelling as much as his 2022 manufacturing stage in Weeks 1-4, however his 15.6 PPR PPG tempo ranked fifteenth amongst huge receivers and urged that Smith might have WR1 worth by the tip of the season. That worth proposition has diminished considerably over the previous two weeks, as Smith’s 5.5 PPR PPG in that span ranks seventy fifth amongst huge receivers.
Which will trigger Smith’s fantasy managers to contemplate benching him for this week’s large matchup towards Miami, however don’t lose sight of the truth that Smith isn’t shedding targets, as his brief cross goal tempo was mainly the identical in Weeks 1-4 (5 per sport) because it was in Weeks 5-6 (4.5) and his vertical goal tempo has been larger (1.8 in Weeks 1-4, 3.5 in Weeks 5-6).
That vertical goal fee ought to are available very useful towards the Dolphins, as Miami ranks thirtieth in vertical fantasy factors allowed per sport since Week 3.
This implies fantasy managers ought to worth Smith’s upside ceiling for this matchup over the potential ground, as this may very well be the best scoring sport in Week 7, and they’re going to need each participant they will get from this matchup in fantasy lineups.
(Picture: Dylan Buell/Getty Photos)
