What would a MacKenzie Weegar extension involving the Flames look?

It’s no secret that the Calgary FlamesYou are negotiating MacKenzie Weegar’s camp for a new contract.

Weegar Submitted reporters in Calgary, “Hopefully, we can get something done soon.” GM Brad Treliving told The Athletic last week that extending Weegar is their intention: “We’re just working through it,” he said.

Meanwhile, Weegar’s agent — Matthew Ebbs — told me this week he’s confident a deal will get done, and that he’s “hopeful” it will be before the season starts (the Flames open their 2022-23 campaign on Oct. 13 vs. Colorado). However, he would not go into details about the dollar or term they were looking for.

The thought is that Weegar’s deal could fall in the range of Hampus Lindholm’s extension in Boston — eight years, $6.5 million AAV. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman first floated that idea last week. One league source told me that range “makes a lot of sense.”

(One side note: Weegar wears No. 52, which would make a $52million contract fun!

Weegar, a 28-year-old woman with 306 responsibilities, is currently living in New York. NHLHe has played in 121 games and won a total of 59 games. It is difficult to compare the sample size and statistical profile. The player that compares well is the New York Islanders’ Ryan Pulock. When he was 27, he signed an 8-year deal that included a $6.15million annual average value in 2021. Pulock was 27 years old at the time and had played in 290 of his games. He scored 125 points.

It’s not a perfect comparable, given Pulock was coming off a bigger ticket ($5 million) and is a different style defender; a top-pair, go-to, shut-down guy for the Islanders.

It might be a better idea to examine the other long-term agreements that defense personnel have signed over the past three decades.

Note:* indicates a free-agent signing. The highlighted players are those we might be interested in for Weegar.Makar is included despite the six year term. 

Once you navigate through some of the massive contracts that have been given out — Adam Fox, Cale Makar, Miro Heiskanen, etc. — you can see the $6 million to $6.5 million AAV has been a popular area for the next tier of defensemen. This could be the beginning of a Weegar extension.

Weegar is not Makar or Fox — not many players are, even if some outliers are paid like it. He could command as much as $7.5million. Morgan Rielly — they’re in the same Tier in the Top 100 players and ahead of many on the above chart — but Rielly has a much larger sample size (580 games played at the time of signing) and had typically played a bigger role in Toronto than Weegar did in Florida.

For what it’s worth, Hockey: A changing sport projects Weegar — on the open market — to be worth around seven years, $7.68 million. So, again, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that Weegar could be paid in the same sphere as Rielly.

However, a deal that pays Weegar at the front of the next class on this list — players like Erik Cernak, Jonas Brodin, Hampus Lindholm, Adam Pelech, Colton ParaykoRyan Pulock Torey Krug — checks out. It’s in line with where he is as a player: a known quantity as a top-pair defender who isn’t quite a true No. 1 D. It’s also in line with where he’s at compared to those players — I don’t think it’s unfair to say Weegar is the best in that group.

Weegar is an excellent choice for many reasons. It costs $6.5 million over eight years.

He’s an elite, two-way defenseman with positional versatility — he’s a right shot, but played on the left side with Aaron EkbladFlorida. He’s one of the league’s top defenders in transition, in terms of leading the rush and closing a gap to stop opponents coming the other way. He moves the puck well, has a nice shot in his toolkit when he pinches into the offensive zone and has a solid track record of limiting opponents’ shots and quality chances in the defensive zone.

“We look at him as one of the top defensemen in the league,” said Treliving after the trade in July. “His ability to close plays, his ability to kill plays, not only in the defensive zone, but the ability to do so through the neutral ice, the ability to transition pucks, the ability to get it going north to south, the ability to get it going the other way is at one of the highest rates in the league.”

Public models would agree with Treliving’s assessment. According to data from Datatracker, Weegar was named one of the league’s best puck-moving defenses last season. He demonstrated an ability to convert puck retrievals into zone exits. Corey Sznajder for AllThreeZones.Only a handful defensemen (like Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoyHeiskanen) were better in this area. Heiskanen’s 23.6 zone exits per sixty minutes was also one of the highest rates in the league.

According to data from SportlogiqLast season, Weegar was first in blocked passes at five on five, fourth in zone denies, and eighth in zones exits.

Weegar’s mistakes can often be very obvious, which is a common complaint. This was evident in the playoffs when Weegar made some costly errors, such as in Game 3 against Tampa Bay in Round 2 before being swept.

One analyst said that this was not the case. The Athletic, “Making a bad play in the playoffs can stick out poorly, but if you are getting swept you don’t get to complain about individual plays.”

Playing with someone like Chris Tanev in Calgary could help minimize the impact of a big mistake — he’s had that impact before, after all. Darryl Sutter, the head coach, should also be beneficial with his defensive and breakout structures. You can bet the Flames won’t play as loose defensively as the PanthersDid it last season?

Stacked up against two defenders who have signed eight-year, $52 million deals — Lindholm and Parayko — Weegar more than holds his own in terms of usage and on-ice impact. These are the basic numbers to help you understand.

Weegar saw a lot of time in Florida last season. He was used at even strength and on the penalty kill more than Lindholm or Parayko. Sutter frequently uses two defenders to protect his second power-play unit in Calgary. This could allow him to be more useful on the power play. Weegar also leads in overall production, with 44 points in his career season last year and play driving at 58 percent.

And, while Weegar graded in the “Best puck movers” tier in the AllThreeZones microstats, Lindholm and Parayko fall more in the Average to “High risk” categories. Lindholm averaged 15.5 zones exits per 60 minutes, and 7.85 negative plays. Parayko averages 17.95 exits/60 and 6.58 positive plays.

Weegar’s average zone exits were 23.59 and Weegar only had 4.90 negative plays. These are among the best rates in the league.

Long-term contracts are always subject to age, but Parayko (29) and Lindholm (28), signed at the same time as Weegar (28) now. Not to mention, given Weegar is a late bloomer, there’s reason to be optimistic about the aging curve being more kind to him. With 306 games played, Weegar is a “low mileage” 28-year-old, who is peaking after a few years of developing into a top defender in Florida.

“The player he is right now, compared to four years ago, it’s completely different,” said Jonathan Huberdeauat the NHL–NHLPA player media tours. “(Aaron Ekblad) got hurt, and he took that step. He was an integral part of a great season. He played a lot of minutes and he’s gonna do the same thing with the Flames.

“He’s just really at his peak,” he added. “In the prime of his career.”

If all this sounds like Weegar is worth more than 6.5 million — he probably is, at least in the first half of a potential eight-year deal. This is because the term length makes it a more win-win situation than a team friendly deal.

Weegar would have a steady income until the age of 36. He’d be set for life after making between league minimum and $3.25 million over the first six years of his career — and after being a looked-over seventh-round draft pick.

As for the Flames, they’d get Weegar locked down at a reasonable cap hit — the benefit of going longer term.

According to Dom’s GSVA model, Weegar is worth an average of $7.1 million over the eight years after his current deal expires, which would give the Flames a modest surplus value over the course of a $6.5 AAV deal.

Of course, Weegar might not be worth that much by 2028 — his projected value is below $6.5 million by GSVA — but it won’t just be him at that point. Huberdeau, Kadri and other deals have been signed by the Flames this summer. Jacob Markstrom Blake Coleman. It is important for the Flames that Weegar be a top-pair defensiveman over the next four year. He should be able do that perfectly.

If Weegar’s new deal ultimately lands in the eight-year, $52 million range — and again, there’s reason to believe that it will — it’ll be a good bit of work for both sides.

Statistics and research courtesy CapFriendly and Corey Sznajder of Evolving Hockey.

(Photo of MacKenzie Weegar by Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA Today)