Because the postseason performs out and the offseason nears, let’s look forward to an enormous commerce storyline to look at: Will the San Diego Padres transfer Juan Soto?
Soto was arguably the Padres’ finest place participant this season, slashing .275/.410/.519 (158 OPS+) with 35 house runs, 109 RBIs and 12 stolen bases. He led the majors in walks for the third time in his profession and performed all 162 video games for San Diego. He’s additionally only one yr away from reaching free company. The Padres doubtless should resolve whether or not to increase or commerce him this offseason and are maintaining each choices on the desk. Personally, I’d signal him if attainable.
To increase Soto, the Padres should be ready to pay him greater than the 15-year, $440 million contract the Washington Nationals supplied him final yr, which he turned down; that appears unlikely with a number of profitable contracts already on their books, together with these of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts. San Diego can also be coming off a disastrous season during which it didn’t make the playoffs, and the membership may need to interchange Blake Snell and Josh Hader, who’re headed without cost company this winter.
Nevertheless, nobody can underestimate proprietor Peter Seidler given the cash he’s poured into the Padres’ payroll lately. (Soto is projected to make $33 million through arbitration subsequent yr, per MLB Commerce Rumors.) However Soto is represented by agent Scott Boras, who has a monitor file of preferring to take his purchasers to free company, the place he often units contract data.
Mix the anticipated contract it will take to signal Soto long run and the above elements, and it appears there’s an actual chance San Diego trades him this offseason.
The Padres gave up fairly a haul to accumulate Soto (and Josh Bell) from the Nationals on the 2022 commerce deadline, parting with outfield prospects James Wooden and Robert Hassell III, pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Jarlin Susana, shortstop CJ Abrams in addition to first baseman Luke Voit. They will’t count on to get that kind of return a yr and a half later when Soto has only one yr of staff management remaining. Nevertheless, the Padres might nonetheless get a major bundle for Soto, who will flip 25 subsequent week and is without doubt one of the sport’s brightest stars.
A number of big-market and contending groups want an influence bat for the center of the lineup to place them excessive, and I imagine can be keen to commerce a robust bundle of prospects and even some major-league gamers to land somebody of Soto’s standing.
You possibly can’t rule out the Padres discovering widespread floor with Soto on an enormous extension, but when that doesn’t occur, they should critically think about transferring him this winter. To set the stage for commerce season, let’s have a look at 5 groups that might make sense as locations if Soto is dealt, in addition to potential commerce packages.
Juan Soto ranked fifth within the Nationwide League in OPS (.929) this season. (Kirby Lee / USA At the moment)
1. New York Yankees
The Yankees (82-80) completed 19 video games behind the Baltimore Orioles and 17 behind the Tampa Bay Rays within the American League East. New York made progress in integrating younger gamers equivalent to Anthony Volpe and Jasson Domínguez into its lineup this previous season, however the membership has an extended technique to go to shut the hole and catch the division pacesetters. A commerce for Soto is sensible as a result of the Yankees badly want one other influence left-handed hitter and should get youthful on the identical time. When wholesome, the trio of Soto, Domínguez and Aaron Decide must be the most effective offensive outfield within the sport. (Domínguez will miss at the very least a number of months of subsequent season as he works again from Tommy John surgical procedure.)
The Yankees have the assets to signal Soto long run if the transfer works out or they might commerce him on the 2024 deadline if issues go south. They might provide the Padres a bundle of major-league-ready expertise together with pitchers Michael King and Jhony Brito, outfielder Everson Pereira and infielder Oswald Peraza. In the event that they landed Soto, the Yankees might then focus totally on enhancing their beginning rotation for the remainder of the offseason.
2. Boston Purple Sox
The Purple Sox have to make a splash this offseason and a Soto commerce would definitely qualify. It additionally would take a few of the stress off the younger gamers they’re growing, together with Triston Casas, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela. A possible Purple Sox bundle might begin with Alex Verdugo, who would instantly turn out to be the Padres’ beginning left fielder. Add in beginning pitcher Tanner Houck (who would go proper into the Padres’ rotation) and a few good prospects equivalent to outfielder Miguel Bleis and right-hander Luis Perales. Are you able to think about Verdugo being a centerpiece in each the Mookie Betts commerce and a possible Soto commerce? I can’t both, however with Soto having just one yr of management remaining, it clearly reduces the return considerably.
3. Seattle Mariners
The Mariners have the most effective younger rotations in baseball with Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Emerson Hancock and Robbie Ray. They’ve influence arms on the again finish of their bullpen with Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash and Justin Topa. Nevertheless, they only don’t have sufficient offense of their lineup to overhaul the Astros or Rangers within the AL West. A Soto commerce would change that instantly as Seattle might put the three-time All-Star between Julio Rodríguez and Eugenio Suárez in its lineup.
The Mariners are blessed with sufficient beginning pitching to supply Miller and one in every of their high 5 prospects, both outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez or catcher Harry Ford, in a two-for-one deal for Soto. It might be an enormous worth to pay for probably just one yr of Soto, however until the Mariners can signal Shohei Ohtani or Cody Bellinger in free company, how else can they enhance their offense sufficient to make the playoffs subsequent yr and have a official shot at a world championship?
4. San Francisco Giants
The Giants have been attempting to land a famous person to construct round however have fallen quick with previous makes an attempt to accumulate Giancarlo Stanton, Decide and Carlos Correa, amongst others. With the Giants entrance workplace below extra stress than ever this winter after a subpar season — plus the contracts of each of their high baseball operations executives, Farhan Zaidi and Pete Putila, expiring after subsequent yr — it’s time for the membership to step up and eventually land its subsequent face of the franchise. The Giants are anticipated to make a run at Ohtani, however that looks as if extra of an extended shot. Due to this fact, buying and selling for Soto may make sense. I perceive it will be troublesome for the Padres to commerce him to an NL West staff. Maybe it will be arduous for the Giants to commerce for a participant represented by Boras after failing to finalize a take care of Correa, one other Boras shopper, final offseason resulting from conflicting views of his medical data. Nevertheless, on the finish of the day, the Padres will make the most effective deal they’ll for Soto in the event that they commerce him — even when it’s throughout the division.
So what would a Giants bundle appear to be that may entice the Padres? In an effort to commerce him to a division rival, it most likely has to begin with their finest beginning pitching prospect, lefty Kyle Harrison, plus shortstop Walker Martin, who was a second-round decide within the 2023 MLB Draft, and outfielder Luis Matos. That’s a sturdy bundle for one yr of Soto, however buying and selling for him now might result in the Giants signing him long run, which might make the deal nicely price it.
5. Cleveland Guardians
Will you cease laughing and let me clarify? The Guardians have constructed a younger, gifted and cheap beginning rotation of Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams, together with a robust bullpen led by Emmanuel Clase, Sam Hentges and Trevor Stephan. What they’re lacking is influence hitters. A commerce for Soto would drastically enhance their probabilities of making the playoffs subsequent yr by bolstering the center of their lineup past José Ramírez and Josh Naylor.
The Guardians might probably swap their ace, Shane Bieber, and left fielder Steven Kwan for Soto. Bieber can also be a free agent after subsequent yr and will assist the Padres fill the void left by Snell of their rotation and Kwan, a Gold Glove Award winner, would give them improved protection in left subject and one other excessive on-base share participant for the highest of the lineup. After all, from a Guardians standpoint, in the event that they aren’t within the race come July, they might at all times flip round and deal Soto on the commerce deadline.
(High picture: Matt Thomas / San Diego Padres / Getty Pictures)
