Jude Bellingham has had quite the week.
The 21-year-old was at the centre of a controversy after being sent off for dissent against Osasuna on Saturday, but the recent discourse of lexical loopholes should not overshadow last Tuesday’s stoppage-time winner for Real Madrid against Manchester City in their Champions League play-off first leg.
Since he arrived at Madrid in the summer of 2023, Bellingham has assimilated perfectly into the winning mentality that swirls across the Bernabeu turf. Snatching victory from the jaws of defeat is a key part of the club’s DNA, occurring so frequently that it becomes an expectation among Madrid fans.
You could list countless examples of memorable comebacks on the European stage, but the numbers in La Liga show how often Madrid bounce back from adversity. Since the start of last season, Carlo Ancelotti’s side have accrued 35 points from losing positions — comfortably more than any other side in Spain.
There is a case to be made that Bellingham has not just integrated into such a winning mentality, but has been the flagbearer for the never-say-die attitude that helped Madrid lift trophies in La Liga and the Champions League in his debut season.
Last Tuesday’s 92nd-minute goal in Manchester was his sixth stoppage-time winner in a Madrid shirt across domestic and European competition. A 95th-minute strike against Getafe kickstarted proceedings in September 2023, with late goals in back-to-back games against Barcelona undoubtedly savoured the most by the England international.
Much like his finish against City, both Clasico goals were archetypal Bellingham — a late run into the box before a first-time finish from close range.
“I’m not going to lie, I’d much rather keep scoring in the 90-plus (minute) than the 15th, even though it might take a bit of strain off my heart and the fans’ hearts. It’s always good to score late because it normally confirms the game,” Bellingham told TNT Sports after his 96th-minute winner against Union Berlin in the Champions League last season.
“That’s the history of the club. I’m new to the club but I’ve had a TV since I was little. I can’t remember from what age I’ve been watching Madrid complete comebacks, where I’m thinking there’s no chance and it’s not possible.
“When you’re around those players every day who have been part of these triumphs in the past, you just pick it up and it rubs off on you.”
By zooming out further, we can underpin just how much Bellingham has a knack for a late goal.
Across Europe’s top-four leagues — including Champions League and Europa League competition — only Atletico Madrid’s Alexander Sorloth (eight) has scored more stoppage-time goals than Bellingham’s six.
Factor in that Bellingham is a midfielder by trade, and he stands comfortably at the top of the list within that cohort. All of which begs the question: is the 21-year-old the most ‘clutch’ player in Europe?
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As a term, clutch has largely been reserved for American sports to denote a player who will step up and hit the winning shot in the dying moments of a game.
It is trickier to get much signal in such a low-scoring sport as football, but looking at the number of ‘game state-changing’ goals — ie, scoring an equaliser when a team is losing, or putting them ahead when drawing — shows how Bellingham stacks up with his team-mates.
Of his 33 goals scored in La Liga and Champions League games, 61 per cent have changed the state of the match — a higher share than any of his team-mates since the start of last season. Others might pad out a lead for Madrid, but Bellingham often changes the game’s outcome.
We can go one further here by adjusting the value of a goal, using The Athletic’s previous analysis. This adjustment is based on these two key factors:
- The percentage of time elapsed within the game
- The type of game state-changing goal scored — equalising or putting their team ahead.
If a player scores the winner in the last minute of a game every week, their goal value will be closer to two — indicated as the additional number of points they have earned their team from a one-point draw to a three-point win (yes, we are converting knockout games into points for this exercise).
An equaliser just after half-time will give a value closer to 0.5, as there is still plenty of time for the scoreline to change within the game. Scoring the final goal in a 3-0 victory would get a value of zero, as there is no change to the outcome.
Across Europe’s top-four leagues — including data from the Champions League and Europa League — since the start of last season, Bellingham’s 0.64 average ‘goal value’ is the highest among any player (with a minimum of 20 goals scored).
Most players on the list below are attacking wingers or centre-forwards, showing how much Bellingham, often viewed as a midfielder, has puffed his chest out to be the game-changer when his team require it.
That is before considering Bellingham’s impact at the international level. Gelsenkirchen was the stage during last summer’s European Championship when a desperate England trailed 1-0 in their quarter-final with Slovakia going into stoppage time.
Step forward, Bellingham. A first-time finish in the penalty area was hardly surprising, but to equalise in the 95th minute with an acrobatic overhead kick was taking his clutch status to levels even he could not have expected. Pandemonium followed, with Bellingham screaming, “Who else?” as part of his iconic celebration.
Bellingham celebrates his equaliser against Slovakia (Richard Pelham/Getty Images)
Statistically speaking, he had a good point.
Even accounting for Ancelotti’s injury issues, Manchester City have a tough task to turn their 3-2 deficit around at the Bernabeu on Wednesday. Like a heavyweight boxer who refuses to fall to the canvas, Real Madrid have been one of the most stubborn teams in Europe under their Italian manager.
Expect goals, expect drama, and if Madrid find themselves behind in the dying stages, expect to see Bellingham as the game’s decisive figure… again.
(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Dan Goldfarb)
