The sun’s activity follows an 11-year cycle, known as the solar cycle, which involves phases of intense solar activity. The peak of this cycle, referred to as solar maximum, has long been anticipated for mid-2025.
But, new data suggests that Solar Cycle 25 might have already surpassed its predicted peak, raising questions about whether we’ve already experienced solar maximum.
Solar Cycle 25 Exceeds Expectations
The solar cycle’s progress is measured by the number of sunspots visible on the sun’s surface, which are associated with magnetic activity. Since Solar Cycle 25 began in December 2019, predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projected a solar maximum around July 2025, with monthly sunspot numbers expected to peak between 101.8 and 125.2.
However, data from August 2024 showed an unexpected surge, with a 13-month smoothed sunspot count reaching 156.7, well above the anticipated range. This rapid increase in solar activity may suggest that the solar maximum has already passed, although there’s still some uncertainty surrounding this peak.
What Does the Data Say About the Solar Cycle’s Progress?
The data from August 2024 revealed a major sunspot peak of 216 in a single month, marking the highest sunspot count observed in Solar Cycle 25 so far. Since then, monthly sunspot numbers have remained high, with counts ranging between 136 and 166 from September 2024 to March 2025. The question now arises: has solar maximum already passed?
According to NOAA’s updated experimental prediction, which is based on real-time data, it’s possible that the solar maximum occurred between August and November 2024.
Could a Second Peak Be on the Horizon?
Historically, solar cycles do not always follow a simple, smooth path. Some cycles have exhibited a double peak, where solar activity rises, falls, and then rises again in a secondary peak. In Solar Cycle 24, for example, two peaks occurred: one in 2012 and another in 2014. While these double peaks are relatively rare, they have been observed multiple times throughout solar history.
Could Solar Cycle 25 exhibit a similar pattern? The data does show some signs of this, with peaks in 2023 and 2024 appearing to form a possible double peak, but they do cause a noticeable shift in the smoothed solar cycle curve.
The Current Solar Cycle: What Lies Ahead?
Even though solar maximum may have already passed, it doesn’t mean that the sun’s activity is over. According to solar physicists, solar cycles tend to maintain heightened levels of activity for some time after their peak.
According to Live Science, “Strong solar activity persists for a year or two beyond the maximum date,” which means we can still expect to see sunspots, CMEs, and geomagnetic storms in the near future. In fact, many space weather experts suggest that even after the cycle’s peak, Earth may continue to experience some interesting solar phenomena, including auroras triggered by solar storms.
While the exact timing of solar maximum remains uncertain, the most recent data points suggest that Solar Cycle 25 is more intense and may have reached its peak earlier than expected.
